| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 43.6% | 50% | -6.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.8% | 76% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 56.6% | 67% | -10.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 56% | -2.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 48.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.8% | 26.7% | 45.6% |
| xgboost | 34.2% | 20.2% | 45.6% |
| logistic | 38.3% | 27.1% | 34.5% |
| Sunderland | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1646 | 1734 |
| Surface Elo | 1646 | 1734 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Nov | H | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Coventry | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Coventry | 1 - 3 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Brentford | 3 - 2 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Leeds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Manchester United | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Man Utd | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Liverpool | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Tottenham | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Tottenham | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 May 2026 | Sunderland | 2 - 1 | Chelsea |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Chelsea | 1 - 2 | Sunderland |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.01 | 49.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.69 | 27.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.80 | 26.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |