| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.2% | 54% | -0.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.7% | 46.2% |
| logistic | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Tiago Cacao | Sergi Perez Contri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1411 | 1459 |
| Surface Elo | 1411 | 1459 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Olle Wallin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Milos Karol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Anton Matusevich | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Jun | H | Tobias Kamke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Nicolas Barrientos | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr | A | Jurij Rodionov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr | A | Arthur Gea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Mar | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Mar | A | Josip Simundza | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.85 | 54.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.89 | 52.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |