| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.0% | 37% | +13.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.0% | 65% | +11.6% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.4% | 51% | +15.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% | 53% | +14.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 64.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.4% | 26.7% | 28.9% |
| xgboost | 33.3% | 45.3% | 21.5% |
| logistic | 51.8% | 26.0% | 22.2% |
| Bolton | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1554 | 1490 |
| Surface Elo | 1554 | 1490 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 20 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Norwich | 4 - 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Norwich | 4 - 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Cardiff | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | West Ham | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Millwall | 0 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Sheffield Utd | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Sheffield Utd | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Watford | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | A | Cardiff | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Charlton | 4 - 0 | W |
| 29 Dec 2018 | Bolton | 0 - 0 | Stoke |
| 02 Oct 2018 | Stoke | 2 - 0 | Bolton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.62 | 38.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.51 | 28.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.97 | 50.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |