| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 76.7% | 84% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 23.6% | 76.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 24.8% | 75.1% |
| logistic | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| Ann Li | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1699 | 1956 |
| Surface Elo | 1699 | 1956 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Janice Tjen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Camila Osorio | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Iga Swiatek | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Janice Tjen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Ashlyn Krueger | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Magdalena Frech | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maja Chwalinska | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Ann Li | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ashlyn Krueger | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Ann Li | 0 - 2 | Iga Swiatek |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Ann Li | 2 - 1 | Iga Swiatek |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.19 | 84.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.00 | 20.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |