OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Italy Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Lecce 1.20 1 - 2 0.40 Bologna
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 49.4%52%-2.1%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 75.8%80%-4.5%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 65.3%71%-6.2%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.3%48%+9.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson25.5%30.0%44.5%
xgboost27.6%26.4%46.0%
logistic26.0%27.1%46.9%
Inputs the models saw
LecceBologna
Elo (pre-match)15861646
Surface Elo15861646
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.200.40
Form trend0.30-0.20
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2022
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W7 W · 3 D
Lecce: last 5
20 SepAAc Milan0 - 3L
13 SepHMonza3 - 2W
07 SepACagliari0 - 1L
31 AugHRoma0 - 4L
23 AugAVenezia2 - 0W
Bologna: last 5
19 SepHTorino1 - 1D
13 SepANapoli0 - 1L
06 SepHSassuolo2 - 2D
31 AugAAtalanta0 - 1L
24 AugHLazio0 - 1L
Head to head
12 Apr 2026Bologna2 - 0Lecce
28 Sep 2025Lecce2 - 2Bologna
09 Feb 2025Lecce0 - 0Bologna
02 Nov 2024Bologna1 - 0Lecce
11 Feb 2024Bologna4 - 0Lecce
03 Dec 2023Lecce1 - 1Bologna
04 Jun 2023Lecce2 - 3Bologna
23 Oct 2022Bologna2 - 0Lecce
26 Jul 2020Bologna3 - 2Lecce
22 Dec 2019Lecce2 - 3Bologna
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.9451.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4828.7%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home4.3822.8%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.1047.6%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.7457.5%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:07 UTC