| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.8% | 87% | -22.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 89.0% | 100% | -10.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 85.5% | 100% | -14.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 69% | -13.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 67.7% | 21.0% | 11.3% |
| xgboost | 65.8% | 21.1% | 13.1% |
| logistic | 72.4% | 19.8% | 7.8% |
| Lazio | Sudtirol | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1784 | 1424 |
| Surface Elo | 1784 | 1424 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Parma | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Parma | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Juventus | 3 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Juventus | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Monza | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Sampdoria | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Juve Stabia | 0 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Juve Stabia | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Ascoli | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 15.50 | 6.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.70 | 14.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |