| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.7% | 61% | -9.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.1% | 48.9% |
| xgboost | 38.9% | 58.7% |
| logistic | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| New York Rangers | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1492 | 1596 |
| Surface Elo | 1492 | 1596 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.29 | 3.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.86 | 2.40 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Vancouver Canucks | 6 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Washington Capitals | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | New York Islanders | 5 - 2 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 4 - 2 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Detroit Red Wings | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | New York Islanders | 5 - 3 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Minnesota Wild | 3 - 2 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Washington Capitals | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 1 - 5 | L |
| 01 Oct 2026 | New York Rangers | 5 - 1 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 15 Apr 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 - 4 | New York Rangers |
| 29 Nov 2025 | New York Rangers | 1 - 4 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 13 Nov 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 - 7 | New York Rangers |
| 17 Apr 2025 | New York Rangers | 4 - 0 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 07 Apr 2025 | New York Rangers | 1 - 5 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 - 2 | New York Rangers |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.41 | 41.5% | 13 Oct 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.64 | 61.0% | 13 Oct 20:20 |