| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.1% | 36% | +12.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.8% | 75% | -0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.5% | 50% | +12.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 52% | +8.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.9% | 28.2% | 26.8% |
| xgboost | 40.2% | 26.0% | 33.8% |
| logistic | 44.5% | 28.9% | 26.6% |
| Derby | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1491 | 1499 |
| Surface Elo | 1491 | 1499 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 3 D |
| 14 Oct | A | QPR | 1 - 4 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | QPR | 1 - 4 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Scunthorpe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Halifax | 2 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Bolton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Bolton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Derby | 2 - 0 | Stoke |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Stoke | 3 - 1 | Derby |
| 03 May 2025 | Derby | 0 - 0 | Stoke |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Stoke | 2 - 1 | Derby |
| 30 Dec 2021 | Stoke | 1 - 2 | Derby |
| 18 Sep 2021 | Derby | 2 - 1 | Stoke |
| 20 Mar 2021 | Stoke | 1 - 0 | Derby |
| 12 Dec 2020 | Derby | 0 - 0 | Stoke |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Derby | 4 - 0 | Stoke |
| 17 Aug 2019 | Stoke | 2 - 2 | Derby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.44 | 41.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.49 | 28.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.99 | 33.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.89 | 52.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |