OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Scottish Premiership · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Aberdeen 1.00 3 - 1 0.60 St Mirren
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 45.9%55%-8.6%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.0%79%-5.3%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 59.0%73%-13.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 55.6%49%+6.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 51.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson47.0%27.7%25.3%
xgboost35.9%30.3%33.8%
logistic34.9%28.5%36.6%
Inputs the models saw
AberdeenSt Mirren
Elo (pre-match)15761574
Surface Elo15761574
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.000.60
Form trend0.000.60
Season points per game1.001.25
Season goals for / game0.881.00
Season goals against / game1.131.75
Rest days67
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W7 W · 1 D
Aberdeen: last 5
13 OctAElgin1 - 0W
11 OctHSt Johnstone0 - 1L
11 OctHSt Johnstone0 - 1L
26 SepACove Rangers1 - 2L
22 SepABanks O´Dee FC1 - 2L
St Mirren: last 5
13 OctAEdinburgh City5 - 0W
10 OctAHeart of Midlothian FC0 - 5L
10 OctAHearts0 - 5L
26 SepACumbernauld Colts FC4 - 2W
22 SepAClydebank FC1 - 2L
Head to head
12 May 2026Aberdeen0 - 2St Mirren
04 Apr 2026St Mirren2 - 0Aberdeen
03 Dec 2025Aberdeen3 - 3St Mirren
18 Oct 2025St Mirren0 - 1Aberdeen
03 May 2025St Mirren1 - 0Aberdeen
25 Jan 2025Aberdeen0 - 3St Mirren
23 Nov 2024St Mirren2 - 1Aberdeen
11 Aug 2024Aberdeen3 - 1St Mirren
02 Mar 2024St Mirren2 - 1Aberdeen
30 Dec 2023Aberdeen0 - 3St Mirren
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.5022.2%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.9025.6%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.6859.5%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.7357.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.1047.6%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away4.0824.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7926.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.8853.2%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7557.1%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1047.6%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC