| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.2% | 63% | +0.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| logistic | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| Luis "Guto" Miguel | Facundo Mena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1518 | 1684 |
| Surface Elo | 1518 | 1684 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| Rest days | 37 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Facundo Mena | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Aidan Mayo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Andrew Fenty | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Facundo Mena | 0 - 1 | Luis "Guto" Miguel |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.69 | 59.2% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 30 Sep 06:15 |