OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-27
⚽ La Liga 2 · Sunday 27 September 2026, 14:15 UTC · finished
Mallorca 2.00 0 - 1 1.80 Almeria
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 49.3%48%+1.1%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 75.2%78%-3.2%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 65.8%67%-1.3%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 59.4%54%+5.9%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 56.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson50.2%26.7%23.1%
xgboost46.2%29.7%24.1%
logistic46.7%27.3%26.0%
Inputs the models saw
MallorcaAlmeria
Elo (pre-match)15941551
Surface Elo15941551
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.80
Form trend-0.60-0.90
Season points per game2.172.00
Season goals for / game1.331.67
Season goals against / game0.330.67
Rest days86
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W4 W · 2 D
Mallorca: last 5
27 SepACF La Nucia0 - 2L
20 SepAReal Murcia Imperial FC1 - 0W
19 SepASociedad B1 - 0W
19 SepASociedad1 - 0W
13 SepHSabadell2 - 0W
Almeria: last 5
27 SepHAtletico Porcuna CF4 - 0W
20 SepHCelta B2 - 0W
20 SepHCelta B2 - 0W
12 SepACordoba2 - 0W
06 SepHCadiz3 - 2W
Head to head
19 May 2024Mallorca2 - 2Almeria
17 Dec 2023Almeria0 - 0Mallorca
20 May 2023Almeria3 - 0Mallorca
17 Sep 2022Mallorca1 - 0Almeria
21 Feb 2021Mallorca2 - 0Almeria
03 Dec 2020Almeria0 - 1Mallorca
19 May 2019Mallorca1 - 0Almeria
06 Jan 2019Almeria2 - 0Mallorca
03 Feb 2018Mallorca1 - 2Almeria
09 Sep 2017Almeria2 - 1Mallorca
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.6027.8%27 Sep 15:15
Bet3651X2draw3.3030.3%27 Sep 15:15
Bet3651X2home1.9651.0%27 Sep 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.0050.0%27 Sep 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.8055.6%27 Sep 15:15
SportyBet1X2away3.5028.6%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3330.0%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1047.6%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9651.0%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8254.9%27 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 20:33 UTC