| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.8% | 79% | -19.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.9% | 98% | -11.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.8% | 96% | -14.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 43% | +11.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.3% | 29.7% | 15.9% |
| xgboost | 70.3% | 18.2% | 11.5% |
| logistic | 70.7% | 19.7% | 9.6% |
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1668 | 1540 |
| Surface Elo | 1668 | 1540 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 20 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Amedspor | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Amed Sportif Faaliyetler | 2 - 3 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Erzurumspor | 3 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Fenerbahce | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Corum | 6 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Gaziantep | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Gaziantep | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Galatasaray | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Samsunspor | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Konyaspor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Kocaelispor | 0 - 1 | Besiktas |
| 29 Sep 2025 | Besiktas | 3 - 1 | Kocaelispor |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 15.00 | 6.7% | 11 Oct 17:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 6.25 | 16.0% | 11 Oct 17:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.11 | 90.1% | 11 Oct 17:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 11 Oct 17:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 11 Oct 17:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 12.06 | 8.3% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.58 | 15.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |