| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 58% | +0.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.0% | 83% | +3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 80.5% | 76% | +4.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.1% | 45% | +13.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 66.1% | 20.2% | 13.8% |
| xgboost | 54.1% | 29.4% | 16.5% |
| logistic | 65.5% | 23.1% | 11.4% |
| York | Accrington | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1645 | 1388 |
| Surface Elo | 1645 | 1388 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.25 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Newport County | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Newport County | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Gillingham | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Gillingham | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Gillingham | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Oldham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Oldham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 06 Oct | H | Salford | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.25 | 23.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |