OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ Spain Segunda Federacion · Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished
Elche 0.80 4 - 1 0.60 Valencia
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 47.1%34%+13.0%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.5%82%-7.5%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 59.5%47%+12.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.2%56%+0.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson42.1%27.5%30.5%
xgboost30.1%29.7%40.2%
logistic37.0%28.2%34.8%
Inputs the models saw
ElcheValencia
Elo (pre-match)15761603
Surface Elo15761603
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.800.60
Form trend-0.60-0.30
Season points per game1.001.50
Season goals for / game0.672.00
Season goals against / game2.002.00
Rest days2119
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W4 W · 2 D
Elche: last 5
03 OctHUCAM Murcia1 - 5L
27 SepAYeclano Deportivo0 - 1L
20 SepHSCR Pena Deportiva1 - 0W
18 SepAEspanol3 - 1W
15 SepHReal Madrid2 - 3L
Valencia: last 5
04 OctHSCR Pena Deportiva3 - 2W
20 SepHSociedad2 - 3L
19 SepHCastellon1 - 2L
15 SepAAlaves1 - 0W
11 SepASevilla0 - 1L
Head to head
11 Apr 2026Elche1 - 0Valencia
10 Jan 2026Valencia1 - 1Elche
23 Apr 2023Elche0 - 2Valencia
15 Oct 2022Valencia2 - 2Elche
19 Mar 2022Elche0 - 1Valencia
11 Dec 2021Valencia2 - 1Elche
30 Jan 2021Valencia1 - 0Elche
23 Oct 2020Elche2 - 1Valencia
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.1546.5%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.2031.2%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.8535.1%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8055.6%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8753.5%10 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC