OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-28
⚽ England EFL Cup · Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC · finished
Fulham 1.60 0 - 1 0.80 Crystal Palace
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 52.2%53%-1.1%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 79.6%78%+1.5%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 70.5%70%+0.1%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.9%60%-4.0%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 56.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson45.7%27.1%27.2%
xgboost53.0%27.5%19.5%
logistic55.1%26.8%18.2%
Inputs the models saw
FulhamCrystal Palace
Elo (pre-match)16811647
Surface Elo16811647
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.600.80
Form trend-0.600.10
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days43
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W3 W · 5 D
Fulham: last 5
24 OctACoventry1 - 0W
24 OctACoventry1 - 0W
17 OctHHull1 - 0W
17 OctHHull1 - 0W
13 OctAWalsall2 - 3L
Crystal Palace: last 5
25 OctHNewcastle0 - 2L
25 OctHNewcastle0 - 2L
22 OctABesiktas2 - 2D
18 OctABrighton0 - 5L
18 OctABrighton0 - 5L
Head to head
05 Sep 2026Fulham2 - 3Crystal Palace
01 Jan 2026Crystal Palace1 - 1Fulham
07 Dec 2025Fulham1 - 2Crystal Palace
22 Feb 2025Fulham0 - 2Crystal Palace
09 Nov 2024Crystal Palace0 - 2Fulham
27 Apr 2024Fulham1 - 1Crystal Palace
23 Sep 2023Crystal Palace0 - 0Fulham
20 May 2023Fulham2 - 2Crystal Palace
26 Dec 2022Crystal Palace0 - 3Fulham
28 Feb 2021Crystal Palace0 - 0Fulham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.3123.2%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0624.6%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.8554.0%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6759.9%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2544.4%28 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:18 UTC