| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.9% | 45% | +1.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.4% | 77% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.6% | 65% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 43.3% | 66% | -22.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.7% | 30.3% | 22.0% |
| xgboost | 32.0% | 32.0% | 36.0% |
| logistic | 26.7% | 26.4% | 46.8% |
| Lugo | Ferrol | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1337 | 1318 |
| Surface Elo | 1337 | 1318 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1217 | 482 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Zamora CF | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 May | A | Burgos | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 May | H | Huesca | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 May | A | Granada | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 May | H | Andorra | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Barakaldo CF | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 May | H | Sp Gijon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 May | A | Albacete | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | H | Cadiz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 May | A | Tenerife | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.00 | 33.3% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.35 | 42.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.51 | 66.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |