| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.0% | 47% | +9.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| logistic | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| Ignacio Buse | Quentin Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1867 | 1806 |
| Surface Elo | 1867 | 1806 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 28 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Quentin Halys | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Sep | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Marcos Giron | 3 - 2 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Arthur Fery | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Ignacio Buse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Sep | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Ignacio Buse | 0 - 2 | Quentin Halys |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.77 | 56.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 30 Sep 06:15 |