| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.5% | 80% | -14.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| logistic | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| Daniil Medvedev | Valentin Royer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1931 | 1745 |
| Surface Elo | 1931 | 1745 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 20 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Frances Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | L |
| 04 Sep | A | Arthur Rinderknech | 3 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | H | Sebastian Gorzny | 3 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Hugo Gaston | 3 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Adam Walton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Adam Walton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Dalibor Svrcina | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Pedro Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Valentin Royer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.05 | 24.7% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |