| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 86.1% | 89% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.1% | 16.8% |
| logistic | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| Luca Nardi | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1667 | 1466 |
| Surface Elo | 1667 | 1466 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Michael Mmoh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Michael Mmoh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Omar Jasika | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Georgii Kravchenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.50 | 18.2% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.12 | 89.3% | 08 Nov 06:15 |