| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.7% | 76% | -13.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 85.3% | 92% | -6.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 81.3% | 90% | -8.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 34% | +15.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 16.1% | 22.4% | 61.5% |
| xgboost | 13.7% | 23.1% | 63.3% |
| logistic | 12.5% | 21.3% | 66.2% |
| Valencia | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1607 | 1883 |
| Surface Elo | 1607 | 1883 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 7 W · 1 D |
| 01 Nov | A | Elche | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Elche | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | UD Castellonense | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Villarreal | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Orihuela CF | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Nov | H | Real Valladolid Promesas | 3 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | AEK | 3 - 2 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Real Avila CF | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Santander | 3 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Santander | 3 - 0 | W |
| 08 Feb 2026 | Valencia | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Real Madrid | 4 - 0 | Valencia |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Real Madrid | 1 - 2 | Valencia |
| 03 Jan 2025 | Valencia | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 02 Mar 2024 | Valencia | 2 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Real Madrid | 5 - 1 | Valencia |
| 21 May 2023 | Valencia | 1 - 0 | Real Madrid |
| 02 Feb 2023 | Real Madrid | 2 - 0 | Valencia |
| 08 Jan 2022 | Real Madrid | 4 - 1 | Valencia |
| 19 Sep 2021 | Valencia | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.31 | 76.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.59 | 15.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 9.66 | 10.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.43 | 69.9% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |