| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.1% | 73% | -9.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 66.2% | 33.7% |
| logistic | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| Braden Shick | Patrick Maloney | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1584 | 1457 |
| Surface Elo | 1584 | 1457 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 56 | 77 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Wolf, Jeffrey John | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Erik Arutiunian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | J.J. Wolf | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Erik Arutiunian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Braden Shick | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Michael Mmoh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Michael Mmoh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Alastair Gray | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Braden Shick | 0 - 2 | Patrick Maloney |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 21 Sep 06:15 |