| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.5% | 50% | +8.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| logistic | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| Sebastian Baez | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1717 | 1606 |
| Surface Elo | 1717 | 1606 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Marcos Giron | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Remy Bertola | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Etienne Donnet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Etienne Donnet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Jurij Rodionov | 0 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 2 - 3 | Sebastian Baez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.85 | 54.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |