| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 88.6% | 93% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| logistic | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| Alexander Zverev | Juncheng Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2189 | 1719 |
| Surface Elo | 2189 | 1719 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Juncheng Shang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Cameron Norrie | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Rohan Murali | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Ben Shelton | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Karen Khachanov | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 0 | Juncheng Shang |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 9.60 | 10.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.07 | 93.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |