OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-04

NFL · Sunday 04 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Houston Texans – 30 - 34 – Dallas Cowboys

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	64.5%	60%	+4.2%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	64.5%	35.5%

Inputs the models saw

	Houston Texans	Dallas Cowboys
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.11
form diff	0.25
rest diff	0.02
home field	1.00
point diff	0.43
opponent strength diff	0.05
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-03T17:00:00+00:00

Houston Texans: last 5

27 Sep	A	Indianapolis Colts	17 - 19	L
20 Sep	H	Cincinnati Bengals	6 - 20	L
13 Sep	H	Buffalo Bills	31 - 36	L
18 Jan	A	New England Patriots	16 - 28	L
13 Jan	A	Pittsburgh Steelers	30 - 6	W

Dallas Cowboys: last 5

27 Sep	H	Baltimore Ravens	31 - 34	L
20 Sep	H	Washington Commanders	37 - 20	W
14 Sep	A	New York Giants	20 - 28	L
04 Jan	A	New York Giants	17 - 34	L
25 Dec	A	Washington Commanders	30 - 23	W

Head to head

19 Nov 2024	Dallas Cowboys	10 - 34	Houston Texans
11 Dec 2022	Dallas Cowboys	27 - 23	Houston Texans
08 Oct 2018	Houston Texans	19 - 16	Dallas Cowboys
05 Oct 2014	Dallas Cowboys	20 - 17	Houston Texans
26 Sep 2010	Houston Texans	13 - 27	Dallas Cowboys
15 Oct 2006	Dallas Cowboys	34 - 6	Houston Texans
09 Sep 2002	Houston Texans	19 - 10	Dallas Cowboys

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.68	59.5%	04 Oct 15:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.33	42.9%	04 Oct 15:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:10 UTC