| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.6% | 57% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.1% | 84% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.9% | 76% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 59% | +0.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 68.8% | 17.2% | 14.0% |
| xgboost | 44.7% | 30.2% | 25.2% |
| logistic | 49.2% | 27.5% | 23.3% |
| Mansfield | Bromley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1524 | 1512 |
| Surface Elo | 1524 | 1512 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.86 | 2.57 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Burton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Burton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Huddersfield | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Bradford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 0 - 4 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Brentford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Huddersfield | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Huddersfield | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Blackpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.10 | 24.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |