| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.3% | 91% | -19.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 92.0% | 7.9% |
| logistic | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Carlos Taberner | Goncalo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1627 | 1502 |
| Surface Elo | 1627 | 1502 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Benjamin Hassan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Duje Ajdukovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Petr Nesterov | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.10 | 16.4% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.10 | 90.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |