| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 83.8% | 93% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 93.6% | 6.3% |
| logistic | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Jacob Fearnley | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1790 | 1577 |
| Surface Elo | 1790 | 1577 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 11 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Oct | A | Arthur Fery | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Oct | A | Dillon Beckles | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Lorenzo Sonego | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Philip Henning | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Maximilian Marterer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Calvin Mueller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Matt Ponchet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Aaron Gabet | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.80 | 11.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.08 | 92.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |