| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.9% | 62% | -0.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| logistic | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Stefanos Sakellaridis | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1667 | 1557 |
| Surface Elo | 1667 | 1557 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.57 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Timofey Skatov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Laslo Djere | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Martin Landaluce | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Vit Kopriva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Hiroki Moriya | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Mitchell Krueger | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Keegan Smith | 2 - 1 | Stefanos Sakellaridis |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |