| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.5% | 58% | -7.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| logistic | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1669 | 1623 |
| Surface Elo | 1669 | 1623 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Juan Pablo Ficovich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Garay, Valentin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |