| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.7% | 60% | -3.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| logistic | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Felix Balshaw | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1663 | 1632 |
| Surface Elo | 1663 | 1632 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Henry Bernet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Henry Bernet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Harry Wendelken | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Felix Balshaw | 1 - 2 | Joel Schwaerzler |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.90 | 52.6% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |