| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.8% | 38% | +14.3% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.5% | 68% | +11.7% | abandoned |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.9% | 52% | +18.5% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 56% | +0.2% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.0% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.7% | 27.3% | 26.0% |
| xgboost | 51.4% | 25.4% | 23.2% |
| logistic | 58.2% | 26.5% | 15.4% |
| Mantova | Cittadella | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1500 | 1380 |
| Surface Elo | 1500 | 1380 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 521 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Pisa | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Pisa | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Sampdoria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Novara | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | US Albinoleffe | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Lecco | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | ACD Ospitaletto | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 May | H | Salernitana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Cittadella | 1 - 2 | Mantova |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Mantova | 1 - 0 | Cittadella |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.77 | 56.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.90 | 52.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |