| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.5% | 59% | +1.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.9% | 85% | -0.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.1% | 78% | +3.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 62% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.0% | 23.8% | 19.2% |
| xgboost | 76.1% | 12.8% | 11.2% |
| logistic | 69.5% | 19.1% | 11.4% |
| Southend | Barrow | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1586 | 1307 |
| Surface Elo | 1586 | 1307 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.22 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.56 | 1.22 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Gateshead | 6 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Gateshead | 6 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Tamworth | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Carlisle | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Yeovil | 3 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Aldershot | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Aldershot | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Solihull | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Worthing | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Sutton | 3 - 0 | W |
| 01 May 2021 | Barrow | 1 - 2 | Southend |
| 09 Jan 2021 | Southend | 1 - 0 | Barrow |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.25 | 23.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |