| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.6% | 62% | -8.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 81.2% | 87% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 72.7% | 82% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 52% | +3.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 19.2% | 26.6% | 54.2% |
| xgboost | 19.9% | 25.6% | 54.4% |
| logistic | 20.1% | 26.3% | 53.6% |
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1672 | 1935 |
| Surface Elo | 1672 | 1935 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.83 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 5 W · 2 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Notts County | 1 - 5 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Crystal Palace | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Crystal Palace | 1 - 3 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Peterborough United | 5 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Burton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Lille | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Leeds | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Leeds | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Brighton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Nottingham Forest | 0 - 0 | Arsenal |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Arsenal | 3 - 0 | Nottingham Forest |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Nottingham Forest | 0 - 0 | Arsenal |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Arsenal | 3 - 0 | Nottingham Forest |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 2 | Arsenal |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| 20 May 2023 | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | Arsenal |
| 30 Oct 2022 | Arsenal | 5 - 0 | Nottingham Forest |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.50 | 66.7% | 18 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 18 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 7.00 | 14.3% | 18 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 18 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 18 Oct 16:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.59 | 62.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.24 | 23.6% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 6.46 | 15.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.89 | 52.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.96 | 51.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |