OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ League Two · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Grimsby 1.20 0 - 2 1.00 Northampton
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.0%59%-5.5%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 81.7%86%-4.4%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 73.8%79%-5.3%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 59.0%51%+8.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 54.9%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson44.8%30.4%24.7%
xgboost56.4%25.6%18.0%
logistic61.9%24.7%13.4%
Inputs the models saw
GrimsbyNorthampton
Elo (pre-match)14751293
Surface Elo14751293
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.201.00
Form trend0.900.30
Season points per game1.300.88
Season goals for / game1.300.50
Season goals against / game1.100.88
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W2 W · 3 D
Grimsby: last 5
10 OctAPort Vale0 - 1L
10 OctAPort Vale0 - 1L
06 OctHBurton0 - 0D
03 OctHShrewsbury1 - 2L
03 OctHShrewsbury1 - 2L
Northampton: last 5
10 OctAYork1 - 1D
10 OctAYork1 - 1D
06 OctACambridge1 - 2L
19 SepHRotherham0 - 1L
19 SepHRotherham0 - 1L
Head to head
18 Feb 2023Northampton1 - 2Grimsby
06 Aug 2022Grimsby1 - 1Northampton
29 Feb 2020Grimsby0 - 3Northampton
23 Nov 2019Northampton2 - 0Grimsby
16 Mar 2019Grimsby0 - 0Northampton
24 Nov 2018Northampton2 - 2Grimsby
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.2023.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.4029.4%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.8155.2%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.0349.3%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.8354.6%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away4.5022.2%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7526.7%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7557.1%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8354.6%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9551.3%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC