| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.9% | 18% | +39.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 81.8% | 40% | +41.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 74.8% | 23% | +51.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 75% | -10.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 62.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 10.6% | 16.9% | 72.6% |
| xgboost | 19.8% | 22.7% | 57.5% |
| logistic | 19.4% | 24.9% | 55.6% |
| Doncaster | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1482 | 1788 |
| Surface Elo | 1482 | 1788 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 17 | 16 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Peterboro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Peterborough United | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Plymouth | 2 - 3 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Notts County | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | Rochdale | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Bournemouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Fulham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Sep | A | Ipswich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Nottingham Forest | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.40 | 18.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.90 | 20.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.31 | 76.3% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.40 | 29.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |