| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.0% | 63% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 19.4% | 80.6% |
| logistic | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Alexander Bublik | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1916 | 1935 |
| Surface Elo | 1916 | 1935 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 27 | 26 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Jakub Mensik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 3 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | J.J. Wolf | 3 - 1 | W |
| 25 Jul | H | Quentin Halys | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Learner Tien | 2 - 3 | L |
| 03 Sep | H | Jurij Rodionov | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Shintaro Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Aug | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Alexander Bublik | 0 - 2 | Jakub Mensik |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Alexander Bublik | 0 - 2 | Jakub Mensik |
| 03 Feb 2025 | Alexander Bublik | 0 - 2 | Jakub Mensik |
| 01 Jul 2024 | Alexander Bublik | 3 - 2 | Jakub Mensik |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.59 | 62.9% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 30 Sep 06:15 |