| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.5% | 63% | -3.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.9% | 51.0% |
| logistic | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| Gonzalo Bueno | Maximo Zeitune | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1638 | 1460 |
| Surface Elo | 1638 | 1460 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 36 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Max Schoenhaus | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Valentin Royer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Gonzalo Bueno | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Lucio Ratti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Gonzalo Bueno | 0 - 2 | Maximo Zeitune |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |