| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.7% | 53% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.4% | 81% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.3% | 72% | -5.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 52% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.6% | 26.2% | 23.2% |
| xgboost | 40.2% | 33.9% | 25.8% |
| logistic | 43.3% | 29.8% | 26.9% |
| Benevento | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1396 | 1415 |
| Surface Elo | 1396 | 1415 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Carrarese | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Carrarese | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Verona | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Ascoli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Sudtirol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Sep | A | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Cremonese | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Mantova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Virtus Entella | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Sampdoria | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.90 | 52.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |