| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.2% | 73% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 20.6% | 79.3% |
| logistic | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Alexander Donski | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1521 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1521 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 55 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Aug | H | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Aug | H | Takuya Kumasaka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Jul | H | Max Hans Rehberg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Mark Lajal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Jul | H | Oliver Crawford | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.37 | 73.0% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 27 Sep 06:15 |