| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.8% | 67% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| logistic | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Jenson Brooksby | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1782 | 1725 |
| Surface Elo | 1782 | 1725 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.54 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.54 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Gabriel Debru | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Patrick Maloney | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Timo Legout | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Darwin Blanch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Sander Jong | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Mees Rottgering | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Daniel Milavsky | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Darwin Blanch | 0 - 2 | Jenson Brooksby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 25 Oct 06:15 |