| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.3% | 48% | +10.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| logistic | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Juan Manuel La Serna | Franco Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1626 | 1552 |
| Surface Elo | 1626 | 1552 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Hernan Casanova | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Franco Roncadelli | 1 - 2 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| 11 May 2026 | Franco Roncadelli | 1 - 2 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.69 | 59.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |