| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.6% | 57% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| logistic | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Daniel Elahi Galan | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1569 | 1601 |
| Surface Elo | 1569 | 1601 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 28 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Calvin Hemery | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Calvin Hemery | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 0 - 2 | Juan Pablo Varillas |
| 08 Jul 2024 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2 - 0 | Juan Pablo Varillas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.76 | 56.8% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.99 | 50.2% | 19 Oct 06:15 |