| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.0% | 46% | +4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.0% | 72% | +4.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.6% | 61% | +5.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 65% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.5% | 25.7% | 32.9% |
| xgboost | 55.5% | 26.1% | 18.4% |
| logistic | 50.6% | 25.9% | 23.5% |
| Cardiff | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1559 | 1499 |
| Surface Elo | 1559 | 1499 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.14 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.71 | 1.43 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 5 W · 1 D |
| 04 Nov | H | West Ham | 3 - 3 | D |
| 04 Nov | H | West Ham | 3 - 3 | D |
| 02 Nov | A | Bournemouth | 2 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | QPR | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Nov | A | QPR | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 0 - 0 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Lincoln | 1 - 4 | L |
| 04 Mar 2025 | Cardiff | 1 - 2 | Burnley |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Burnley | 5 - 0 | Cardiff |
| 08 May 2023 | Burnley | 3 - 0 | Cardiff |
| 01 Oct 2022 | Cardiff | 1 - 1 | Burnley |
| 13 Apr 2019 | Burnley | 2 - 0 | Cardiff |
| 30 Sep 2018 | Cardiff | 1 - 2 | Burnley |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.08 | 32.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.86 | 25.9% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.24 | 44.6% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |