| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.1% | 77% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| logistic | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Mattia Bellucci | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1774 | 1638 |
| Surface Elo | 1774 | 1638 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | A | Luka Pavlovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Elias Ymer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Shintaro Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Alexander Shevchenko | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Yosuke Watanuki | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Dane Sweeny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Mattia Bellucci | 2 - 0 | Shintaro Mochizuki |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.35 | 29.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |