| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.7% | 60% | +10.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| logistic | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| Igor Marcondes | Andrew Fenty | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1562 | 1380 |
| Surface Elo | 1562 | 1380 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrew Fenty | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Timo Legout | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Federico Agustin Gomez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Patrick Maloney | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Dylan Dietrich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Erik Arutiunian | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Keshav Chopra | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Andrew Fenty | 2 - 0 | Igor Marcondes |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.93 | 51.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |