OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Scottish League Two · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Dumbarton 1.80 1 - 1 1.40 Stirling
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 48.1%43%+5.1%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.3%82%-5.5%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 61.4%57%+4.0%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.4%66%-6.4%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 57.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson47.1%24.6%28.3%
xgboost45.4%23.3%31.2%
logistic37.5%29.1%33.4%
Inputs the models saw
DumbartonStirling
Elo (pre-match)13301325
Surface Elo13301325
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.801.40
Form trend0.30-0.90
Season points per game1.201.10
Season goals for / game1.101.30
Season goals against / game1.702.30
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W3 W · 4 D
Dumbarton: last 5
13 OctAClydebank FC0 - 4L
10 OctAClyde1 - 2L
10 OctAClyde1 - 2L
03 OctHForfar2 - 1W
03 OctHForfar2 - 1W
Stirling: last 5
10 OctHKelty Hearts2 - 1W
10 OctHKelty Hearts2 - 1W
03 OctAAnnan Athletic1 - 0W
03 OctAAnnan Athletic1 - 0W
22 SepHCumbernauld Colts FC1 - 1D
Head to head
01 Aug 2026Stirling2 - 0Dumbarton
11 Apr 2026Dumbarton2 - 1Stirling
28 Feb 2026Stirling1 - 1Dumbarton
27 Dec 2025Dumbarton1 - 2Stirling
04 Oct 2025Stirling2 - 2Dumbarton
18 Apr 2023Dumbarton0 - 0Stirling
25 Mar 2023Stirling2 - 2Dumbarton
08 Oct 2022Stirling6 - 0Dumbarton
30 Jul 2022Dumbarton2 - 0Stirling
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.5040.0%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.3043.5%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5365.4%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3842.0%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.6537.7%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7027.0%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3542.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5166.2%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:19 UTC