| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.9% | 66% | -10.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.5% | 63.4% |
| logistic | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Gianmarco Ferrari | Alex Marti Pujolras | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1508 | 1478 |
| Surface Elo | 1508 | 1478 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.43 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.57 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Nov | A | Lorenzo Berto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Nov | H | Michele Mecarelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | De Marchi, Andrea | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Bertimon, M | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Jacopo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Nov | A | Fiorentini, Andrea | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Alberto Barroso Campos | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Sandro Kopp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Andrej Nedic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.51 | 66.2% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 12 Nov 06:15 |