| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.6% | 56% | +5.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| logistic | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Jacob Fearnley | George Loffhagen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1747 | 1628 |
| Surface Elo | 1747 | 1628 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 11 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jan Kumstat | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | George Loffhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Filip Pieczonka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Charles Broom | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | Michele Ribecai | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | George Loffhagen | 0 - 2 | Jacob Fearnley |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.95 | 51.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 13 Oct 06:15 |