| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.2% | 69% | -9.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.8% | 90% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.5% | 87% | -8.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 62% | -9.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 61.1% | 24.5% | 14.4% |
| xgboost | 74.1% | 15.8% | 10.1% |
| logistic | 66.9% | 20.8% | 12.3% |
| Lille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1773 | 1554 |
| Surface Elo | 1773 | 1554 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Nice | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Troyes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Sep | A | Toulouse | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Angers | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Toulouse | 2 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Angers | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Brest | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Lyon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | Monaco | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 May 2026 | Lille | 1 - 1 | Le Havre |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Le Havre | 0 - 1 | Lille |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Lille | 1 - 2 | Le Havre |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Le Havre | 0 - 3 | Lille |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Lille | 3 - 0 | Le Havre |
| 01 Oct 2023 | Le Havre | 0 - 2 | Lille |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.50 | 18.2% | 10 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 10 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 10 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 10 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.25 | 13.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.15 | 19.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.63 | 61.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |