| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.7% | 65% | -8.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 38.7% | 61.2% |
| logistic | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Valerio Aboian | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1525 | 1548 |
| Surface Elo | 1525 | 1548 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 8 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Matias Soto | 0 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| 24 Mar 2025 | Matias Soto | 2 - 1 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.55 | 64.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |